Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Stop the Belo Monte Monster Dam


The Brazilian government is moving ahead "at any cost" with plans to build the third-largest dam in the world and one of the Amazon's most controversial development projects – the Belo Monte dam on the Xingu River in the state of Pará. The Belo Monte dam complex dates back to Brazil's military dictatorship and the government has attempted to build it through various series of national investment programs including Brasil em Ação and the Program to Accelerate Growth. Original plans to dam the Xingu have been greenwashed through multiple public relations programs over the course of two decades in the face of intense national and international protest.

Impacts on Environment and People

In order to feed the powerhouse of the Belo Monte dam complex, up to 80% of the Xingu River will be diverted from its original course, causing a permanent drought on the river's "Big Bend," and directly affecting the Paquiçamba and Arara territories of the Juruna and Arara indigenous peoples. To make this possible, two huge canals 500 meters wide by 75 km long will be excavated, unearthing more land than was removed to build the Panama Canal. Belo Monte's two reservoirs and canals will flood a total of 668 km2 of which 400 km2 is standing forest. The flooding will also force more than 20,000 people from their homes in the municipalities of Altamira and Vitoria do Xingu.
Hydroelectric energy is touted as both a solution to Brazil's periodic blackouts and as a "clean development" approach to global climate change. However, Philip Fearnside of the National Amazon Research Institute (INPA) has calculated that the forests flooded by Belo Monte's reservoirs will generate enormous quantities of methane, a greenhouse gas that is 25 times more potent than CO2.
Belo Monte will also attract 100,000 migrants to the region. However, at the height of construction, only 40,000 jobs – only 2,000 of them long-term – will have been created. The remaining labor pool will be driven to resort to illegal logging and cattle ranching, the two main causes of deforestation in the Amazon.  In addition, new migrants could fuel social tensions as they look for work, pushing into indigenous territories and protected areas to carve out a livelihood. Meanwhile, the needs of those who do find jobs will add pressure to an already weak infrastructure and social services in the largest cities. 
For the Xingu's poor farmers, temporary employment created by the dam is not a viable replacement for lost agricultural lands and the river's fish supply. Considered an "obstacle" to business interests, indigenous peoples are particularly vulnerable. Mega-projects typically confront indigenous communities with disease, loss of food and clean water sources, cultural disintegration and human rights abuses by illegal loggers, migrant workers and land speculators. The indirect and long term impacts of Belo Monte are of even greater concern as other unsustainable industries such as aluminum and metal refineries, soy plantations, logging, and mining expand into the area.

Energy Inefficiency and Future Upstream Dams

Belo Monte will be one of the most energy inefficient dams in the history of Brazil. It will produce only 10% of its 11,233 megawatt (MW) installed capacity during the 3-5 month-long dry season, an average of only 4,462 MW throughout the year, or 39% of its nominal capacity. To guarantee a year-round flow of water, the government would need to construct a series of large dams on the Xingu and its tributaries that will gravely impact forests and forest peoples. 
The original plans for damming the Xingu included six dams: Kararão, Babaquara, Jarina, Ipixuna, Iriri, and Kokraimoro. However, when the indigenous people of the Xingu rejected the dams and defended the river in 1989, the government changed their approach: the name Kararão (a war cry in Kayapó) became "Belo Monte", the name Babaquara became "Altamira", and so forth.
At the Second Historical Encounter in Defense of the Xingu in May 2008, the government announced it would only license and auction one dam complex – "Belo Monte" – which in reality is three dams: the main dam at Ilha do Pimental, a complementary reinforcement dam called Bela Vista, and the main turbine house at Belo Monte do Pontal. However, because of the dramatic variations in the Xingu River's flow between the rainy season and dry season, the government knows that building Belo Monte is economically unviable unless more dams are built upstream. Earlier plans for Belo Monte called for four additional upstream dams: Altamira, Iriri, Pombal, and São Felix.
The possible future upstream dams would impact Kayapó indigenous territories, flood the lands of peoples such as the Araweté, Assuriní and Arara, and cause extensive damage to forests and fisheries across the region.

What the Electricity is For

The government claims that Belo Monte's cheap energy will power the houses of Brazilian families. In reality, only 70% of Belo Monte's energy will be sold for public consumption.  Meanwhile, the remaining 30% has been purchased by state electric utility Eletrobras to resell to inefficient and energy-intensive industrial mining and other operations.  The government has planned a USD $40 billion investment in mining expansion for the Amazon region through the year 2014. The heavily subsidized electricity from Belo Monte and other hydroelectric dams planned for the region would power the expansion of export-oriented mining at the Vale corporation's Carajás iron mine and Salobo copper mine, Alcoa's Juriti bauxite mine, and Anglo American's Jacaré nickel mine, among others. Meanwhile, Brazilian citizens would continue to pay among the highest energy tariffs in the developing world in exchange for electricity from perhaps the most inefficient dam in the country's history.

Sustainable Alternatives

WWF-Brazil released a report in 2007 stating that Brazil could cut its expected demand for electricity by 40% by 2020 by investing in energy efficiency. The power saved would be equivalent to 14 Belo Monte hydroelectric plants and would result in national electricity savings of up to R$33 billion (US$19 billion).2
Retrofitting existing hydroelectric infrastructure would also add thousands of megawatts to the energy grid without needing to dam another river. A first step would be to reduce the startling amount of energy lost during transmission, replace energy-inefficient household products, and update old and failing generators. Rather than invest in large, inefficient dams, Brazil has the potential to be a global leader in energy efficiency and renewables such as wind and solar power, conserving the Amazon ecosystem and drastically cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

Project Finance and Cost

The Belo Monte dam complex is expected to cost upwards of USD $17 billion, including $2.5 billion for the transmission lines. The project has been developed by the state-owned energy company Eletronorte, and would be funded largely by the Brazilian National Development Bank (BNDES), which has publicly committed to financing up to 80% of the project cost. Financing for Belo Monte would represent the largest loan in BNDES' history, for which the bank has offered unprecedented loan conditions, including 30-year interest periods at 4%, significantly below the cost of capital.  The government is also siphoning Brazilian public pension funds and the country's workers' insurance funds in order to bankroll a full 25% of the project's construction consortium, called Norte Energia.
The 18-member Norte Energia consortium is currently marked by a state-controlled participation in the consortium totaling 77.5 percent, dwarfing the role of private sector investors and reflecting concerns about the financial risks associated with the project.  Nonetheless, using subsidized credit from BNDES and through back-door deals, the Brazilian government has lured construction giants Odebrecht, Andrade Gutierrez, and Camargo Correa back into the consortium, and are expected to participate in up to 50% of the dam's construction as contractors. Meanwhile, European companies Alstom, Andritz, and Voith-Siemens and Argentine company Impsa are expected to supply turbines for the project.

Grave Omissions in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)

The IBAMA technical team assigned to the project declared that "there are insufficient elements to attest to the environmental viability of the project" due to the omission of data in the EIA. Data was missing regarding water quality, socioeconomic indicators, and fish populations, and flimsy plans to mitigate the direct impacts on riverine families were devised last minute, causing serious divisions within the agency. Despite this, in February 2010 the head of IBAMA approved the EIA, granting the dam's provisional environmental license, and stipulated that the winning consortium monitor the project impacts over a six-year "trial period" of operation.4 This "wait and see" attitude is no way to manage the environmental impacts of the world's third-largest dam.
Despite laws and policies promising environmental protection and community participation in development and land management decisions, Brazil's official EIA for the Belo Monte project has also received harsh criticism from national and international experts, all of whom note that the EIA barely covers even the minimum amount of information required by Brazilian legislation.
In protest, two senior technicians at IBAMA, Leozildo Tabajara da Silva Benjamin and Sebastião Custódio Pires, resigned their posts in 2009 after citing high-level political pressure to approve the project despite the obvious omissions in the EIA.5 Shortly after the government's decision to move forward with Belo Monte, 140 organizations and movements from Brazil and across the globe decried the decision-making process in granting the environmental license for the dams in a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in 2010.6

Lack of Public Consultation

The government claims that proper public hearings were held to consult indigenous people and river dwellers about the impacts of Belo Monte. Indeed, Minister of the Environment Carlos Minc claimed that the public hearings were "pedagogic." However, this could not be further from the truth. Only four public hearings were held in the cities of Altamira and Vitória do Xingu, destinations that take days for indigenous people traveling by boat to reach. Even so, at the public hearings security forces impeded the entrance of civil society representatives, and the few public queries that were asked were dismissed, ridiculed, and answered evasively by Eletrobras representatives.
Leaders from the Xingu River Basin have made it clear that their right to consultation on the Belo Monte project has not been honored. José Carlos Arara of the Arara people on the Xingu's Big Bend, for example, has denounced the government's claims that he and other leaders took part in an official meeting with the government on Belo Monte, as mandated by the licensing process. He even has video footage of government officials stating that their 2009 meeting with local leadership was an unofficial consultation, clearly promising that an official audience would take place.

Legal Challenges and Federal Injunctions

Brazil's Federal Attorney General filed two judicial actions in 2010 against IBAMA for having granted the provisional environmental license without responding to the omissions in Eletrobras' environmental assessment. The judicial actions argue that the missing water quality data violates National Environmental Council (CONAMA) Resolution 357, which establishes the standards for water quality, and article 176 of the Brazilian Federal Constitution, which prohibits the development of hydrological energy potential on indigenous lands without a previous fulfillment of regulatory mechanisms.7
The Belo Monte auction took place on April 20, 2010 amidst street protests taking place in major cities across Brazil. Leading up to the auction date three injunctions (restraining orders) were issued by a federal judge of Altamira. Favoring the civil action lawsuits filed by the Brazilian Federal Public Prosecutors Office and human rights and environmentalist NGOs, the injunctions were struck down by a regional appellate court judge, under heavy political pressure from the Lula government. It is important to stress that the auction took place while the third restraining order was in full effect.
Each injunction was overturned in a matter of hours by the President of the Appellate Court for "Region 1" - which covers the entire Amazon basin - succumbing to heavy political pressure from the Lula administration. In spite of legal and constitutional safeguards that place the Belo Monte dam in dubious legal standing, the Brazilian government has consistently used a heavy hand to push this project through to the detriment of the Xingu River and its peoples. If built, the dam forbears a grim future for the rivers of the Amazon basin.

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Cinco mitos sobre o setor de vendas!

Propaganda veiculada nas décadas de 50 e 60. Geoffrey James defende que é dever do vendedor entender o que o cliente procura
Esqueça o que o senso comum diz. O consumidor não está sempre certo e você deve aceitar “não” como resposta em muitos casos. Em sua coluna no site da revista Inc, o jornalista especializado em negócios e comércio, Geoffrey James, desmistifica algumas “verdades” seculares entre os vendedores. Veja a lista abaixo.
Mito 1: O cliente tem sempre razão
Esse mito foi repetido tantas vezes que já se tornou praticamente uma lei da natureza. James destaca, no entanto, que em muitos casos o consumidor pode ser irracional e extremamente exigente e uma das tarefas de quem trabalha como vendedor é mostrar que ele está errado, quando realmente estiver. Segundo James, é preciso mostrar ao cliente que aquilo que ele procura não existe, ou não está disponível naquele local, ou não faz parte dos serviços oferecidos pelo estabelecimento.

Mito 2: Os clientes sabem o que querem
Na verdade, explica James, os clientes frequentemente têm ideias erradas sobre o que querem e precisam comprar. Ele aconselha que os vendedores não atendam a esses pedidos. “Cabe a você, como um vendedor responsável, interpretar o pedido do consumidor e explicar os meios possíveis de satisfazer a necessidade dele”. A recomendação aqui é que o profissional dê a sua opinião sobre o que poderia resolver o problema do cliente e tente vender um produto para isso.

Mito 3: Todos são clientes em potencial
Se você realmente acredita no ditado acima, tome cuidado para não perseguir possibilidades que não existem, aconselha James. Você pode estar perdendo o seu tempo tentando vender um produto a uma pessoa que não procurou por aquilo. Além disso, você precisa avaliar se ela tem dinheiro suficiente para pagar ou se ela tem motivos o suficiente para justificar aquela compra. Segundo o colunista, essa atitude ajudará você a se manter focado nos verdadeiros possíveis consumidores.

Mito 4: Nunca aceite um “não” como resposta
Quando um cliente apresenta todos os motivos possíveis para não comprar alguma coisa, é sinal de que você está perdendo o seu tempo. “Oportunidades de venda aparecem a cada 15 minutos. Não fique obcecado por fechar uma venda de qualquer maneira. Um “não” repetido mais de uma vez é um “não” definitivo”, explica.

Mito 5: Os melhores vendedores são pessoas extrovertidas
Segundo o colunista, pessoas introvertidas – que ouvem mais do que falam – tem o perfil mais adequado para o comércio hoje em dia. James destaca que alguns dos programas de treinamento de vendedores mais eficientes atualmente são baseados em técnicas para formar psicólogos e conselheiros – profissionais que não são conhecidos por sua extroversão.

Negócios

Friday, March 2, 2012

The big beast - José Serra strikes again

 IT IS lucky for José Serra that in Brazil a flip-flop is just a popular item of footwear. Otherwise that is what many might call his decision, made public on February 27th, to seek his party’s nomination for mayor of São Paulo, after months of declaring that he had no interest in the job. His change of heart came just a week before a primary arranged by his Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB). Two of the four would-be candidates have now stepped aside to make way for Mr Serra, a former mayor, state governor and twice a losing presidential candidate. The vote has been delayed until March 25th to give him time to set out his stall. Though many party activists are furious at the casual treatment they have received, he is likely to win.

São Paulo is Brazil’s biggest municipality, with 11m residents, and the country’s beating business heart. Its mayor matters. But the result of this election will now be especially important. It will affect the future of the PSDB, which at federal level is the main opposition to President Dilma Rousseff. It also has implications for the governing Workers’ Party (PT) and the next presidential election, in 2014.
When the current governor of São Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin, steps down in 2014, the state will have been in the PSDB’s hands for 20 years. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s former president and the PT’s powerbroker, has been plotting to end that hegemony. The plan was to win the mayoralty as a stepping stone to taking the state two years later. Lula arm-twisted the PT’s local bigwigs into dropping their preferred mayoral candidate, Marta Suplicy, a former mayor popular with poor paulistanos but loathed by better-off ones.

In her place Lula installed Fernando Haddad, a former education minister who is unobjectionable, unremarkable and in São Paulo almost unknown. They were close to sealing an alliance with the current mayor, Gilberto Kassab, that would have left the PSDB’s candidate isolated. But Mr Kassab is a close friend of Mr Serra’s. Now Mr Haddad must face a big beast, and probably without Mr Kassab’s backing. Suddenly, the day when the PT takes the PSDB’s stronghold looks further off.
Mr Serra’s previous stint as São Paulo’s mayor ended prematurely. He stepped down after just 15 months to run for state governor, even though he had signed a pledge during the campaign to serve a full four-year term. This is his main electoral liability. Voters suspect that he still harbours presidential ambitions, and would cut short his mayoral term again. But a campaign spent swearing that this time is different will help his main rival for the PSDB’s presidential nomination in 2014, Aécio Neves, a senator from Minas Gerais.
Losing São Paulo would be a big blow for the PSDB. Mr Serra’s return makes that less likely. Uniting around a single presidential candidate would also be a good idea—though Ms Rousseff, a popular and steady incumbent, will be hard to beat in 2014. Mr Serra won his party’s nomination for president in 2010 by sheer force of will and because nobody could think of a way to stop him. Most party activists thought it was time for a fresh face, and his defeat suggests they were right. His late entry to the mayoral race may make it more likely that they get their wish next time. But it also points to the PSDB’s failure to nurture a new generation of leaders.

The Economist - March 3rd 2012

Thursday, March 1, 2012

O otimismo é o maior indicador de sucesso empresarial.

Para Shawn Achor, a ideia de que só se atinge a felicidade após conseguir o sucesso esta invertida.
Um estudo feito pelo pesquisador Shawn Achor diz que é possível mudar o nível de otimismo de uma pessoa e que, com ele, as chances de sucesso são maiores
Empreendedores gostam de estabelecer metas, objetivos, sonhos. Eles acreditam que quando chegarem naquele ponto tão desejado – qualquer que seja esse ponto - terão uma sensação incrível de satisfação e felicidade. Não que isso não seja verdade, mas um especialista de Harvard acredita que essa equação está invertida. Shawn Achor, autor do livro “The Happiness Advantage” (“A Vantagem da Felicidade”, na tradução livre do inglês), defende que se tem mais chances de obter o sucesso na vida o profissional que é feliz antes de atingí-lo.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

DOMINATING THE MARKET


Dominating your market doesn’t mean you have to be the biggest in a particular industry, profession, or marketplace. Being smaller sometimes allows you to be more agile than larger companies. If you’re going to play to win however you want to be the most successful business in your marketplace and there are certain things that you can do to position yourself in that way.
It’s a lot easier to dominate your market if you’re very clear about what your market is. Who are your customers? People who believe everyone’s a customer have a hard battle on their hands. To have a generic product which suits everyone is difficult because:
  • You have such a large marketplace you don’t know where to start
  • You can never specialise
  • You can never become expert in a certain field.
If you have a specific niche market for your field, your product or service, it becomes extremely easy to become the leader in that marketplace.
When you niche your product or service several things happen: you know where to focus your marketing and where to find your customers. When you do that, you become expert in that marketplace because:
  • You have the same type of customers
  • You’re providing the same service or product
  • You become better and better at what you do.
You increase the referrals you receive because when you are an expert people will refer you to others. When you are an expert in your niche your charges increase because people are willing to pay more for an expert than a generalist.
It can be more profitable for a business to cut out some of what they do and focus on one particular area. Typically, 20% of your income is provided by 80% of your customers, and 80% of your income comes from 20% of your customers. It means most of your business income derives from 20% of your customers so you focus solely on them. When you focus on those people – you will attract other people like them because those 20% say, “This guy only specialises in people like us.”
Creating a segment of the market gives you the power to dominate that market. People pay money and go straight to that one place because it provides the product or service they want. You need to position your company as the only place to go.
Part of this involves education: if people don’t know about your company and its specialist products or services, they’re not going to buy from you. You need to educate your customers as to why you are the expert. You do that by determining what makes you an expert. Is it because:
  • you have more experience?
  • you have staff that has more experience?
  • you have been in the business longest?
  • you have the biggest range?
  • you have exclusive supplies?
  • you can do special orders?
  • you provide an unsurpassed service?
You’re not just taking money from your customers in return for a product or service – you’re also providing backup and a support mechanism that they won’t find elsewhere. You’re offering all of those things. By doing this you attract a clientele to your business that wants the best. And do you know something? They’re the best customers – because they appreciate you more.
Being specific about who your customers are is the first step. One way to find out is to survey your customers. Ask them:
  1. What should we start doing?
  2. What should we stop doing?
  3. What’s just right?
  4. What should we do more of?
  5. What should we do less of?
Offer people an incentive to complete and return the survey.
Focusing on the benefits rather than the features does help people to understand why they should pay that little bit extra. It’s positioning you away from simply offering a commodity that everybody’s offering to offering something special. It says you really understand your customers and what they actually want. It’s no longer about a commodity: it’s a service and a product combined.
Ideally, you want to move away from a transactional relationship – the sort you have with your supermarket: you give them money and take your groceries.
Part of the key to that is actually:
  • Capturing the details of the people who are visiting your website
  • Understanding what they’re buying, and
  • Being able to predict their buying habits.
There are other ways of positioning yourself in the marketplace. One of the fastest ways to position yourself at the top of your marketplace is to be an author. If you have written a book then people automatically perceive you as an expert. You become a trusted advisor.
When you position yourself in your niche, you become far more focused in your marketing than you could ever do if you were just being a generalist. It opens up so many opportunities.
Once you’ve dominated one niche – you can develop a second niche. But again, select a niche rather than trying to be all things to all people.
Conclusion
  • Decide who your customers are or who you want them to be and focus on dominating the market by positioning yourself as an expert
  • Focus your marketing
  • Know your customers – love your customers
  • Service your customers so that you become the ‘go-to’ company for those people.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Interesting X

Why do X's at the end of a letter signify kisses?

In the Middle Ages, when many people were unable to read or write, documents were often signed using an X. Kissing the X represented an oath to fulfill obligations specified in the document. The X and the kiss eventually became synonymous.

Awesome 👄

Why Technology Will Enhance Our Brains

Why Technology Will Enhance Our Brains





It could be that we are on the verge of a great deluge of cognitive enhancement. Or it's possible that new brain-enhancing drugs and technologies will be nothing compared to how we've transformed our minds in the past. If it seems that making ourselves "artificially" smarter is somehow inhuman, it may be that similar activities are actually what made us human.
Let's look at the nature of the new technology. Last week a team of ethicists from Oxford released apaper on the implications of using Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (TDCS) to improve cognition in human beings.  Recent years have seen some encouraging, if preliminary, lab results involving TDCS, a deep brain stimulation technique that uses electrodes placed outside the head to direct tiny painless currents across the brain. The currents are thought to increase neuroplasticity, making it easier for neurons to fire and form the connections that enable learning. There are signs that the technology could improve language acumen, math ability, and even memory. The Oxford paper argues that TDCS has now reached a critical stage where its risks must be carefully considered before the research goes further.



Of course, not everyone is convinced that the technology will pan out. Some remain skeptical of TDCS, calling it a fad, the latest in a long series of "neuro-myths" that bubble up when scientists distort or embellish their findings in the name of publicity. But even if brain stimulation fizzles, the questions raised by the Oxford paper are going to be with us for a long time. That's because TDCS is just one of many promising new technologies that neuroscientists hope will enhance cognition, including smart pills, genetic engineering, and brain-to-computer interfacing. As deep brain stimulation has become the flavor du jour in neuroscience, bioethicists have increasingly given it a starring role in the thought experiments they use to tease out the philosophical dilemmas posed by cognitive enhancement.



Allen Buchanan is one such bioethicist. As a Professor of Philosophy at Duke University and a consultant to the President's Council on Bioethics, Buchanan has written extensively about the ethical implications of human enhancement. In his most recent book Better Than Human he makes a sustained philosophical case for pursuing human enhancement, arguing that its critics often proceed from a deeply flawed understanding of human nature. Last week I spoke with Buchanan at length about the ethics of deep brain stimulation, the history of cognitive enhancement, and what a world of cognitively enhanced human beings might look like.
Some have argued that enhancement, cognitive or otherwise, is somehow antithetical to human nature. Part of your response to that argument, if I understand it correctly, has been to say that the drive toward enhancement is actually very much a part of human nature. Can you elaborate on that a bit?


Buchanan: I think that any appeal to the notion of human nature, on either side of the enhancement debate, is tricky and problematic and has to be handled with care. Yes, in one sense we might say that it's part of human nature to strive to improve our capacities. Humans have done this in the past by developing literacy and numeracy, and the institutions of science, and more recently we've done it with computers and the Internet. So, yes, if an alien were looking at humanity and asking "What is human nature?" one of the ingredients is going to be that these beings seem quite concerned with improving their capacities and they seem to have a knack for doing it.


On the other hand, sometimes people say that we shouldn't engage with these technologies because we could somehow damage our nature or interfere with our nature, and in doing so they seem to have a kind of rosy pre-Darwinian view about human nature and about nature generally. They tend to think that an individual organism, a human being, is like the work of a master engineer---a delicately balanced, harmonious whole that's the product of eons of exacting evolution.


Now that's one account of human nature, but I want to contrast it with another one from Charles Darwin who wrote in a letter to Joseph Hooker: "What a book a devil's chaplain might write on the clumsy, wasteful blundering, low and horribly cruel works of nature" and by the works of nature, he's talking about us. And so these are two quite different views about nature and about human nature, and if you begin with the first one, the sort of rosy and pre-Darwinian view, then you're almost bound to conclude that anything we try to do to improve ourselves is bound to be a disaster, that any form of intervention is going to end up looking like reckless, foolhardy behavior. On the other hand if you take the Darwinian view and think of human beings as being like any other organisms---sort of cobbled together beings, products of mutation and selection and the crude development of ways to cope with short term problems in the environment, then you'll be more open to the idea that we should at least consider the possibility of improving ourselves.

Humans have done enhancement in the past by developing literacy and numeracy, and the institutions of science, and more recently we've done it with computers and the Internet.
The list of design flaws in human beings is pretty long, as it is in other organisms, and so to think that somehow we're at the summit of perfection and that we're stable is to have the wrong idea of human nature. The misleading assumption is that if we don't interfere, we're going to continue the way we are, and of course that goes completely contrary to everything we know about evolution. In fact it might turn out that the only way to prevent us from going extinct, or to prevent some great worsening of our condition, is to enhance some of our capacities.


When I was a child, which was quite some time ago, in textbooks in public schools you often saw this depiction of some sort of primordial being pulling itself out of primordial soup, sort of a half fish half mammal sort of thing, and then just to the right of that in this line of development, there would be an apelike creature walking on all fours, then you see a Neanderthal walking partly upright, and then you see a human being walking fully upright, and then that's the end. There's no indication that things could get better or worse after that. And that's the picture that we're the summit of the evolutionary process and of course that's really just importing the old pre-Darwinian view and giving it a superficial coating of Darwinian terms.



Human enhancement has been a frequent subject in popular culture, even if its treatment there has often been superficial. Have films like Gattaca or Limitless primed the public for thinking about the ethical implications of these technologies?



Buchanan: It's interesting you mentioned both Gattaca and Limitless because they're quite different.Gattaca is, in a way, representative of the majority of films that tackle these topics, which tend to be very dark. They tend to play on the anxieties people have about these technologies, and they tend to take a very negative view of their social consequences. Gattaca, for instance, paints a fairly grim picture, because it looks at the effects of genetic engineering on human beings simply in terms of its potential for creating a caste system, and I just think there's more to it than that. Limitless on the other hand, at least as I saw it, seemed to be much more positive and seemed to convey that people could have quite legitimate interests in cognitive enhancement technologies, and that the people who desire these technologies aren't just cranks or people who have inappropriate desires.


         "One thing that Limitless missed is the interactive benefit of these enhancements."








One of the most common objections to cognitive enhancement--one that Gattaca addresses in the context of genetic engineering--stems from the fear that cognitive enhancements might exacerbate social inequality by disproportionately advantaging elites. You have argued, persuasively I think, that some examples of previous cognitive enhancement technologies, like literacy and mobile phones, have diffused rapidly across classes after some initial period of monopolization by elites. Are there good reasons to think cognitive enhancement will follow suit?



Buchanan: I think that it depends on which kind of cognitive enhancements you're talking about, especially which modes of technology are being used. If you're thinking about something like surgical procedures for implanting genetically engineered tissue into someone's brain, or if you're talking about very high tech brain to computer interfacing technologies or the genetic engineering of human embryos, presumably those technologies are going to be very expensive and won't be available to a lot of people. So if that's the direction that we go, there might be very serious problems of inequality.



On the other hand cognitive enhancements like TDCS and cognition-enhancing drugs may become inexpensive fairly quickly, and in turn might diffuse much more rapidly than literacy did. This is especially clear in the context of prescription drugs. Right now if you go to Wal-Mart there are over one hundred and thirty drugs that used to be on patent and have now gone off patent and gone generic, and a month supply of each of these drugs is only four dollars. Now that's a lot cheaper than the cognitive enhancement drug that you get at Starbucks. So yes in the future there might be a period when these drugs are on patent, and are expensive, but when they go off patent they could become very inexpensive.



And also it's important to bear in mind that this may not be something where access to the market is an issue at all. If it turns out that some safe version of TDCS has dramatic cognitive benefits, then governments may view these as very important for national productivity and they may subsidize them in the way they now subsidize education for the very same reason.



Cell phones are another example. No one dreamed that cell phones would become available so rapidly to hundreds of millions of people around the world. But some technologies do diffuse slowly, and where they diffuse slowly there's a potential for problems of inequality.



Assuming then that some cognitive enhancements will spread rapidly across socioeconomic lines, is there a fear that they might make society more likely to produce certain outliers on the continuum of human personality--say, evil genius figures capable of horrific atrocities. If this technology increases the set of highly intelligent individuals within a certain population, won't it also increase the chances that those individuals will overlap with the small set of homicidal, or even genocidal maniacs within a population? I'm thinking of someone like Pol Pot with the intellectual capacities of a figure like Richard Feynman.



Buchanan: At present we don't know enough about the connections between intelligence and personality to know how serious a risk that is but I think it's a risk worth considering. I mean there's another way to look at this, and that is that there is a general problem here. We've developed technologies, which are so powerful and so readily accessible that a very small number of people can use them to create great harm, and that's just due to the success of science.



Even today, without a tremendous amount of specialized knowledge, people may be able to produce lethal viruses that we don't have much immunity to, or a small terrorist group can acquire some plutonium and put it in a municipal water supply and kill lots of people. So in one way this is a more general problem about how powerful our technologies are and the fact that they can be used for good or for ill by small numbers of people---people who are not subject to the discipline of large organizations like states, who aren't subject to the logic of deterrence that state actors are subject to.



Now the other side of this coin is that if there's a general ramping up of intelligence, then presumably there's also going to be a lot more people who are very intelligent and who have good motivations, and who will be committed to trying to constrain the bad apples and prevent them from doing damage.



You also have to consider the possibility that cognitive enhancements may go hand in hand with moral enhancements. There's a great debate as to what extent bad behavior results in part from flawed cognitive processes, but even if improving our intelligence is not by itself is not likely to make us behave better, it may turn out that some of the same knowledge we're using to make cognitive enhancements---knowledge about the relationship between our brains and behavior--- may allow us to develop what some people have called "moral enhancements." And if that happens, that may be something that will at least reduce the kind of risk that you're talking about, because you're right that people who have a super-developed intelligence along with a moral sensibility that's dwarfed in comparison could be a real problem.


                                                                 An incomplete picture?



It strikes me that the development of "moral enhancements" would probably rip open five or six new subfields in bioethics.



Buchanan: Oh I agree and it already is, and it's very tricky. Cognitive enhancement is something that's relatively easy for people to understand, because it's easier for people to see what's controversial about it because it's easier to see what counts as a boost in cognitive performance. When it comes to moral performance, we have all sorts of problems that have to do with disputes about what a moral improvement is, what the moral virtues are, and that sort of thing.



We also have interesting precedents, interesting examples of existing morally enhancing technologies, like religion, social morality, institutionalized morality---there's no question that these have increased our capacity to interact with each other. Even legal systems have been moral enhancements in some respect because they've enabled us to control our aggressive impulses, to find ways of settling disputes that are more morally acceptable.


People who have a super-developed intelligence along with a moral sensibility that's dwarfed in comparison could be a real problem.

And it might turn out that there are some biochemical interactions that might stimulate our moral imagination, increase our empathy towards others, or, in the cognitive dimension, might improve our powers of moral judgment and reasoning. There's a lot of interesting literature now on what are called normal cognitive biases, cognitive flaws in cognitively normal people. Some of these cognitive flaws might have bad moral consequences in certain contexts, and so it's possible that by reducing some of those we might make ourselves better off also.



Putting aside the outliers, the extreme personalities, some neuroethicists are worried about what they call ''hyper-agency,'' the notion that as human beings become more able to control their lives and themselves, they also become less constrained by traditional limits, and that human wisdom will ultimately be insufficient to manage that kind of freedom.



Buchanan: Look, I think this is a genuine problem. It's the old problem of hubris, and it's important to recognize that it doesn't just apply to cognitive enhancement or even biomedical enhancement more generally, it applies to all human interventions, technological or social or economic or political. One thing I would point out is that even though the worry about hubris is a serious one, it's hard to see how it could be a conclusive argument against biomedical enhancements across the board. Instead it's like all genuine concerns---it has to be given due weight and then balanced against the potential benefits of these technologies.



So while I think we should take the problem of hubris seriously, I also realize that it's not a local problem for biomedical enhancements, it's something we face everywhere and that consequently, it can't be a conversation-stopper. We have to take a more fine-grained approach, because there's no sort of general answer to the question "how should we go slow" or "how we should use due caution" for all of these different technologies. Different modes of enhancement in different contexts are going to have different risk benefit profiles.



A lot of people worry that the widespread use of cognitive enhancement will mean raised standards in the classroom and in the workplace. And while that may turn out to be a net positive for society, there is a fear that individuals who would rather not participate in cognitive enhancement will be forced to just to keep up with their enhanced coworkers, and that such pressures would constitute a kind of soft coercion.



Buchanan: That does worry me; I think it's a very reasonable concern. Now, again, it's not a conversation stopper, it's not something that would lead to the conclusion that we shouldn't develop these technologies. I think the situation you've described is quite widespread in sports. Some athletes, or even a majority of athletes, would prefer not to use enhancement drugs, but they do so in a defensive manner to prevent being put at a disadvantage when others use them. It's also a concern with the off-label use of drugs like Adderall, drugs that have not been developed specifically for the kind of cognitive enhancement they are often used for.



It would be better if we would bring these cognitive enhancement drugs out of the closet, and do regular clinical double-blind trails with them
The worst case scenario is where large amounts of people feel this pressure to use a drug even though they would prefer not to do it, and it's happening in a kind of unregulated context as it is now (with Adderall) and many people may be led to set aside reasonable worries about bad side effects because of this pressure, this soft coercion you're talking about. We have a huge unregulated experiment going on in this country, and in many other advanced countries I suspect, where a large population of university students are using these drugs, and that's unfortunate because it might be that five years from now or ten years from now it's going to be discovered that these drugs have some large scale adverse effect. It would be better if we would bring these cognitive enhancement drugs out of the closet, and do regular clinical double-blind trails with them, and genotype the people that take them and later if there's an adverse effect, see if it only affects people with a certain genotype, and be in a better position to prevent the wide diffusion of these drugs before they're safe.



Again, though, it's not confined to cognitive enhancement drugs or biomedical enhancements; I'm sure there are lots of people who used to be able to qualify for a job without an advanced degree, and now they have to have an advanced degree, and so they're "coerced" into getting that degree whether they think it gives them that much benefit or not. Similarly, if you're raising a child in a society where literacy is a necessary condition for any job worth having, you're going to be under pressure to make sure your child learns how to read and write. So these aren't necessarily bad things, they're only bad if they lead people to disregard reasonable worries about the risks of these technologies.


                                 "Yeah, we're going to need you to put those electrodes on now."
Some of the films about cognitive enhancement make it look pretty dull in practice. I remember seeing Limitless and thinking "so this guy ramps up to these breakout levels of raw intellect and creativity and the best he can do is a Wall Street job and a fancy car?" And that's an extreme example---there have been other, deeper explorations of enhancement, particularly in the superhero genre---but on the whole it seems like the subject has been treated pretty unimaginatively. What have you thought of that's really far out there, culturally or intellectually, that cognitive enhancement might bring about?




Buchanan: While I do think Limitless was more sympathetic toward these technologies than most pop culture representations of them, there's no question it was a little disappointing in terms of what was considered to be a fantastic improvement in the quality of this individual's life. I think one thing thatLimitless missed is the interactive benefit of these enhancements. Cognitive enhancements in particular tend to have what economists call network effects, meaning that the value of you having the enhancement increases as more people have it.



Think about having a computer. If you have a computer, that's good you can do a lot of things with it, but part of what makes having your computer so valuable is that hundreds of millions of other people have computers. Similarly with literacy, if you were the only person who knew how to read certainly that would give you some advantages, but you wouldn't have nearly as rich a world as the one we live in where billions of people are literate.



So, I think perhaps one of the problems with Limitless was that it portrayed this guy by himself having much more developed cognitive capacities than other people, so it overlooked the fact that if lots of people have cognitive enhancements, there might be completely new forms of interaction, new kinds of social relationships, new forms of productivity and human flourishing, or new kinds of intrinsically enjoyable activities that we just don't have access to now.



I have an analogy for this, and the reason it's an analogy is that by the nature of the case it's hard for us to imagine what these new forms of interaction will be, and how rewarding they might be, but here's the analogy. Consider two card games: one is the child's game of "go fish" and the other is contract bridge. Now it might turn out that in the future if huge numbers of people are cognitively enhanced, they will look back at the kinds of activities that people in our world perform and say "that was like children playing go fish."



Think about the kinds of interactions that we now have, and the kinds of enjoyments and productivity we can have because of the Internet. If you try and ramp that up, if you magnify it by many orders of magnitude, you might begin to get an idea of how human life could be if many hundreds of millions of people were cognitively enhanced.



Because TDCS is thought to pair especially well with active learning, it's been suggested that it might be grafted on to media devices of one sort or another. Some have even imagined that in the future iPads and Kindles may come with these electrodes attached, so that you could read in some heightened state of neuronal connectivity. If such a technology were to become safe and available, what would be the first thing you'd read while attached to it?


I've actually heard that the people using this stuff in labs are using it on themselves the way in the way that the rest of us use coffee breaks

Buchanan: It's funny; I've actually heard that the people using this stuff in labs are using it on themselves the way in the way that the rest of us use coffee breaks. But that's a good question, I might go back and try to read an organic chemistry text that I had a lot of trouble with as an undergraduate. Or maybe I'd try to read Kant's Critique of Pure Reason in the original German and see if it's still as impenetrable to me as it was thirty years ago.



You're obviously someone at the outer edge, the innovating edge, of a particular field. I'm curious as to whether you'd want to use cognitive enhancement technologies in order to go deeper in that field, or would you try to expand your range of abilities, like you mentioned with the organic chemistry.



Buchanan: I think that's a question that many people are facing on a smaller scale, because as information becomes available more readily through the Internet, more forms of independent learning are available, and as people live longer, at least people in relatively affluent societies, they're facing this question. They may have specialized in something for most of their productive life, but now they realize they have another twenty years---I'm 63 years old right now, and I'm sort of thinking about what I want to be doing for the next fifteen or twenty years, however long it is that I'm going to be alive.



And that's a real question, the question of whether I should keep hammering away at the things that I do and try to do them better, or whether I should make some kind of radical change and go into some new area, or a diversity of areas, and I think that if the technologies we're talking about are developed it's going to add to the scope of that kind of choice, and I think that's probably a good thing. 

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Mulheres....

Mulheres

"Certo dia parei para observar as mulheres e só pude concluir uma coisa: elas não são humanas. São espiãs. Espiãs de Deus, disfarçadas entre nós.

Pare para refletir sobre o sexto-sentido.
Alguém duvida de que ele exista?

E como explicar que ela saiba exatamente qual mulher, entre as presentes, em uma reunião, seja aquela que dá em cima de você?

E quando ela antecipa que alguém tem algo contra você, que alguém está ficando doente ou que você quer terminar o relacionamento?

E quando ela diz que vai fazer frio e manda você levar um casaco? Rio de Janeiro, 40 graus, você vai pegar um avião pra São Paulo. Só meia-hora de vôo. Ela fala pra você levar um casaco, porque "vai fazer frio". Você não leva. O que acontece?
O avião fica preso no tráfego, em terra, por quase duas horas, depois que você já entrou, antes de decolar. O ar condicionado chega a pingar gelo de tanto frio que faz lá dentro!
"Leve um sapato extra na mala, querido.
Vai que você pisa numa poça..."
Se você não levar o "sapato extra", meu amigo, leve dinheiro extra para comprar outro. Pois o seu estará, sem dúvida, molhado...

O sexto-sentido não faz sentido!

É a comunicação direta com Deus!
Assim é muito fácil...
As mulheres são mães!

E preparam, literalmente, gente dentro de si.
Será que Deus confiaria tamanha responsabilidade a um reles mortal?

E não satisfeitas em ensinar a vida elas insistem em ensinar a vivê-la, de forma íntegra, oferecendo amor incondicional e disponibilidade integral.
Fala-se em "praga de mãe", "amor de mãe", "coração de mãe"...

Tudo isso é meio mágico...
Talvez Ele tenha instalado o dispositivo "coração de mãe" nos "anjos da guarda" de Seus filhos (que, aliás, foram criados à Sua imagem e semelhança).

As mulheres choram. Ou vazam? Ou extravazam?

Homens também choram, mas é um choro diferente. As lágrimas das mulheres têm um não sei quê que não quer chorar, um não sei quê de fragilidade, um não sei quê de amor, um não sei quê de tempero divino, que tem um efeito devastador sobre os homens...

É choro feminino. É choro de mulher...

Já viram como as mulheres conversam com os olhos?

Elas conseguem pedir uma à outra para mudar de assunto com apenas um olhar.
Elas fazem um comentário sarcástico com outro olhar.
E apontam uma terceira pessoa com outro olhar.
Quantos tipos de olhar existem?

Elas conhecem todos...

Parece que freqüentam escolas diferentes das que freqüentam os homens!
E é com um desses milhões de olhares que elas enfeitiçam os homens.

EN-FEI-TI-ÇAM !

E tem mais! No tocante às profissões, por que se concentram nas áreas de Humanas?
Para estudar os homens, é claro!
Embora algumas disfarcem e estudem Exatas...

Nem mesmo Freud se arriscou a adentrar nessa seara. Ele, que estudou, como poucos, o comportamento humano, disse que a mulher era "um continente obscuro".
Quer evidência maior do que essa?
Qualquer um que ama se aproxima de Deus.
E com as mulheres também é assim.

O amor as leva para perto dEle, já que Ele é o próprio amor. Por isso dizem "estar nas nuvens", quando apaixonadas.
É sabido que as mulheres confundem sexo e amor.
E isso seria uma falha, se não obrigasse os homens a uma atitude mais sensível e respeitosa com a própria vida.
Pena que eles nunca verão as mulheres-anjos que têm ao lado.
Com todo esse amor de mãe, esposa e amiga, elas ainda são mulheres a maior parte do tempo.
Mas elas são anjos depois do sexo-amor.
É nessa hora que elas se sentem o próprio amor encarnado e voltam a ser anjos.
E levitam.
Algumas até voam.
Mas os homens não sabem disso.
E nem poderiam.
Porque são tomados por um encantamento
que os faz dormir nessa hora."

Luís Fernando Veríssimo